Who actually predicts mortgage rates well?
We grade the big housing forecasters on how close their published year-ahead calls for the 30-year mortgage rate and home prices came to what really happened — and show what they are forecasting now for 2027. Every forecast is dated and linked to its source.
Leaderboard: 30-year mortgage rate forecasts
Ranked by head-to-head mean absolute error (MAE) over target years every regular forecaster covered (—), so nobody benefits from skipping a hard year. Full-history MAE, bias and sample size shown alongside. Lower is better.
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Bias = average of (forecast − actual). Negative means the forecaster expected lower rates than we got. How grades work.
Today's rate vs. current forecasts
Weekly Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate (line) with each forecaster's latest published call (dots, placed at the target period).
Leaderboard: home price forecasts
Scored against the FHFA purchase-only house price index (via FRED). Forecasters target different price measures, so treat these grades as indicative — see home prices.
Are mortgage rate predictions accurate?
Short answer: over a one-year horizon, not very — and they tend to miss in the same direction. In December 2021 every forecaster we track expected the 30-year rate to end 2022 between 3.3% and 4.0%; it averaged about 6.7% in Q4 2022. In late 2022 most expected rates near 5–6% by the end of 2023; Q4 2023 averaged about 7.3%. Calls made for 2024 and 2025 were far closer. Use forecasts as a range of scenarios, not a plan.
What is the mortgage rate forecast for 2027?
See the current forecasts table above — it lists each forecaster's latest published 2027 (or rest-of-2026) call with a link to the source.
How often is this updated?
Actual rates refresh weekly from FRED after Freddie Mac's Thursday survey. New forecast rows are added when publishers release them.