Mortgage rate forecasts vs. what happened

Year-ahead calls for the 30-year fixed rate, scored against Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED series MORTGAGE30US). Today: — (week of —).

Forecast vs. actual, by target year

Hollow dots are year-ahead forecasts placed at their target period; filled dots are current/pending calls.

Scored year-ahead forecasts

Forecast − actual. Targets use the forecaster's own definition: Q4 average, December average for "year-end" calls, or calendar-year average.

Pending & current forecasts (2026–2027)

Pending rows will be scored automatically once the target period's data is complete.