Home price forecasts vs. what happened
Annual home-price growth calls scored against the FHFA purchase-only house price index (FRED: HPIPONM226S), using the same calendar window as each forecast. Latest FHFA year-over-year: —.
Home price growth: actual vs. forecasts
Year-over-year change, FHFA purchase-only (blue) and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national (grey dashed), with forecasts as dots.
Scored forecasts
Important: forecasters target different measures (NAR and Realtor.com: existing-home median price; Zillow: ZHVI; Redfin: median sale price; Fannie Mae: its own HPI in recent years). We score all of them against one common yardstick, FHFA, so differences partly reflect index choice. See methodology.